Getting Exercise Jumping To Conclusions

Quick!  Read the series of letters and numbers shown below.  Don't waste any time.  Can you read them?  (The images are on the left side of the page below the first image)

Hopefully you found that to be pretty easy.  (And, if I were better with HTML I would have figured out how to put those two images in the line of text above.  But, no matter.  I am sure you were able to do the exercise.)

I expect that you were able to read " A B C", and "1 2 1 3 1 4".  It might have been more difficult to read the series of numbers than the series of letters just because the letters were in the usual order.

But, did you notice that these two series are ambiguous?  I set you up by telling you that you had a series of letters and numbers.  Therefore, you knew what to expect.  When you saw the first series, your brain read it as ABC without any problem.  And when you encountered the second series, your brain read it as 121314, again with little or no trouble.

The ambiguity comes from the way the "B" and the "13" are written.  It could easily be read as "13" or "B".  But, you knew what to expect, so you saw what you expected to see.

If the exercise worked for you, you just experienced jumping to a conclusions, a process that happens to you many times every hour of every day.  In some cases these tiny jumps help make life easy.  They help you drive your car, use your computer, and interact with others.  In other cases, they interfere with communication, cause accidents, or make you say the wrong thing at the wrong time.

Try this little exercise:

• 2 X 2 =
• 10 X 100 =
• 127.39 X 4377.72 =

For most of you, the first two were easy.  No thought is required.  2 X 2 = 4.  And, 10 X 100 = 1000.  But, the last one takes a bit more work.

What you just experienced is an example of the two ways your brain works; what Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel winning economist, calls System 1 and System 2 thinking.  (I recommend Kahneman's, book Thinking, Fast And Slow to anyone interested in understanding more about why our intuition often fails us, and how to identify when we (or others) are using our intuition (System 1) or deeper cognitive (System 2) thinking.)

Right about now, you might be asking yourself "What does this have to do with running my organization better, or being a more effective leader?"

Fair question.

Regardless of industry (business or government), managers and leaders are as likely to jump to conclusions, see what they expect to see, and use intuition to solve problems as anyone else.  Years of experience can be both a blessing and a curse when it comes to making the right moves in changing markets, or new political environments.

When the person in charge sees what he or she expects to see instead of what is really there, the organization is in for a rough time.  These lapses in cognition can spell the end for commercial businesses, or can cause government organizations or leaders to be out of touch with the people they exist to serve.

Do we really understand our customers, patrons, or communities?  Even if we have done surveys or polling, have we deluded ourselves into interpreting the data in a way to fits our mental model of reality?

The recent presidential election provides a perfect example of imperfect data gathering, poor interpretation of the collected data, and how armies of statisticians can see what they expected to see in the polling results.  The outcome, at least for the losing party, was not what they anticipated, to say the least.

Within your company or your community jumping to conclusions and seeing what you expect to see can be just as devastating when the conclusion is wrong.

Good managers and leaders have learned to seek out others, look for the people who have a different point of view, find those willing to say that the "emperor has no clothes", and use both System 1 and System 2 thinking in making important decisions about the direction of the organization.

This is not an abdication of authority or responsibility.  On the contrary!  Good managers and leaders are aware that they may have blind spots, and expect to have the help of others to identify and correct any shortcomings in understanding.  Once the blind spots have been checked, and the conclusions have been tested, it is time to jump.  This doesn't have to be a long, drawn out process.  Stay nimble.  Keep your advisers close.  Include others.  Listen.  Then decide.

May all your conclusions be the right ones!  
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Thinking. Fast And Slow is truly a fascinating book for anyone interested in how the brain works, intuition, conclusions, how we make choices, and more.  Here - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow - is the Wikipedia summary of Kahneman's work.

I also recommend the earlier blog post on Perception for more on how we observe and make decisions.

Also, my thanks go to Jim Boylan for his work with organizations on perception, and ambiguity.

Do At Least One Thing...

Your morning starts with the usual goals for the day: Get project 'A' started, move project 'B' one step down the road, call Fred about the problem that came up yesterday, and so on.  All of these are important goals; important in the sense that they directly relate to your job, and the work that you are doing.  All of these goals are essential to your success in your present position.

However, the thought may pass through your head every now and then that none of these goals relate to who you want to become, how you want to grow, where your life needs to change, or how you are preparing yourself for the future.

If you are one of the lucky people who find themselves being and doing exactly what is right for you, you can probably skip the rest of this blog post.

But, if you are like most people, you have room to grow, ways to improve, and much to accomplish before you reach nirvana.

For the majority of us there are a couple of things that, if done effectively, can create a turning point in our career, and our personal life.  These things are:

• Learning about yourself, who you are, who you want to be, and what is necessary to move yourself to your desired future.  (Kevin Cashman's book Leadership From the Inside Out is a great friend and resource while you make that journey.)
• Every day do at least one thing that moves you toward becoming/being who you want to be.

Simple concepts?  Yes, maybe too simple for some.  But, the execution of these steps takes some work and dedication.

The good news is that this dedication to improving, and investing in yourself pays huge dividends for the rest of your life.

You might say "That's a great idea.  I'll start tomorrow."  And, to that I would say "You pile up enough tomorrows, and you'll find you are left with nothing but a lot of empty yesterdays." (From The Music Man, by Meredith Wilson)

Start today.  Put on your daily planner (along with Project A and Project B) to do one thing every day that moves you toward being who you want to be.  Take the first step.

The first step for many will be to begin to get clear on exactly who you want to be, and what you want to do with the rest of your life.  Some of you will be able to work this out for yourselves by devoting a little quality time to thinking over the question, either alone or with family or friends.  Others may want to consider getting a little help from a coach or mentor who can ask some meaningful questions.  Either way, get started! (See the footnote above regarding Leadership From the Inside Out)

Then, every day take one action, devote time to one thought, have one conversation, introduce yourself to one person who can help, read one article, tell one other person what you are doing, or focus a few minutes on your future. 

Your journey of a thousand miles begins with that first step.


Before you realize what has happened, you will find that your feet are on a slightly different path; one that leads to a better destination. 

Good luck on your journey.


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For those who might be interested in a little reading on this subject, you might find David Whyte's book Crossing the Unknown Sea: Work as a Pilgrimage of Identity very interesting.  Whyte describes his journey from his job as a marine biologist to his dream of becoming a poet in a way that will give heart to all who have a passion for making both life and work meaningful.

Steering By The Rear View Mirror

As corporate and government leaders we depend on data and historical trends to make sense of today's economy.  We look at quarterly performance, study charts of changing sales numbers, analyze trends in housing prices, and examine the number of new jobs created last month.  Unfortunately, much of the data has been disappointing, or worse, very negative.  Then, using this historical data, we make policies that take us into the future.

All of these are valid sources of information.  These indicators, and many more, have lead to a general agreement that the depth and breadth of the recent recession has had a devastating effect on both business and government.  Unemployment has been at unprecedented levels.  In addition, the world economy has been tested almost to the breaking point several times.

Working on the assumption that this is all true, then it stands to reason that caution should be the word of the day for organizations that want to survive.  Our tendency has been to cut back, lower costs, reduce services, hunker down and weather the storm.  It comes as no surprise that this is what the majority of our leaders have advised for several years.

This advice may have been very appropriate for the time.  After all, who could argue with recent history?  It is natural for us to set our course based on past experiences.  It is natural for us to make forecasts based on historical data.  It is natural for us to be cautious.

However, the one thing we can count on in life is change.  When things change, whether that change is rapid or gradual, an organization needs to be able to react by adjusting its course to match the new conditions.  There comes a time when leaders, boards of directors, or others charged with steering the corporate ship must take their eyes away from the rear view mirror and focus on the road ahead. 

Here's the challenge: History, and our natural caution, would tell us to hold to our conservative course until things have turned around.  In other words, we should hold on until we see recovery in our rear view mirror.  It's a bit like riding a roller-coaster sitting backwards.  But, if we prepare ourselves for what has passed, that last dip or rise, we will not be ready for what is coming.

Our program cuts and reductions in products and services have prepared us to survive the past, but are we prepared for the future?

Have our cuts placed us in a position where we cannot respond to the future opportunities and demands?  Are we put in a position where we need to gain back customers, or the trust and confidence of the communities we serve?

Today, we find ourselves, in both business and government, in a position where our roller-coaster ride is beginning to move upward.  But, how many organizations are prepared to take on the demands of a improving economy?  Do we have a game plan for recovery?

For businesses, now would be a very good time to know what needs to be done to win back customers that left because of reduced service, responsiveness, or lack of innovative products.

For government, now would be a very good time to know what long-term effects past decisions to defer maintenance will have on the long-term integrity of infrastructure, and how service reductions will change the quality of life in our community.

It takes courage to buck the popular trend.  (See the "Great Leadership In Troubled Times" post in this blog)  A leader who begins talking about recovery when "everyone knows things are bad' may have trouble selling the message that we need to recreate our organization to deal with a growing economy.  But today, the organizations that are ready to move to the next level of success are the ones that will ride the proverbial roller-coaster without suffering a bad case of whiplash.

Yes, things have been difficult.  But, we cannot let that historical fact turn us into a deer in the headlights of a recovering economy.

F. Scott Fitzgerald said, "The test of a first rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in the mind at the same time, and still maintain the ability to function." (As quoted by Marcus Buckingham in First Break All The Rules.)  I would modify this slightly for this discussion by suggesting that the test of a first rate leader is the ability to hold two opposing models of success in the mind at the same time, and retain the ability to move forward.

As much as we would like for life to be full of quick and perfect answers, the truth is that life is messy and full of shades of gray. (See the Polarities post in this blog)  Business is not simply good or bad.  In these interesting times we need to be prepared for both good and bad.  The economy is not simply good or bad.  Today it is a complex mix of both good and bad. 

The natural tendency is for the people in our organizations, both leaders and staff alike, to demand certainty.  They want black or white answers to every question.  But, the organizations that succeed in this economy will be those that can embrace uncertainty, and navigate these hazy, uncharted waters.

This is an interesting time for people within organizations at all levels.  This is a time when everyone needs to learn from the past, but look to the future.  If we insist on steering by the rear view mirror, we will all crash and burn.

Legacy

Let's say you are a manager who has worked in an organization for a number of years.  You have worked hard to create new processes and systems that assure that your division is working at top efficiency.  You have developed a policy manual, written rules, and if you happen to be in government, you have written ordinances, resolutions, and helped create laws that reflect the desires of the community.  And, today you receive an attractive offer to go to another organization.

You have enjoyed your work, put your heart and mind into the tasks of creating a great organization.  You feel invested in the success of your current employer.  But, this offer is too good to pass up.

As you pick up the phone to make the call accepting the offer you pause to think about what will happen to the people and systems you are leaving behind.  You think about your legacy.

Your thoughts may be that things will be just fine.  After all, you created the right rules, and set up the right processes.  What could possibly happen?

Six months after you leave you run into a team member from your old company.  The first thing out of her mouth is "Why did you leave?  Everything has changed.  It's not the same place without you."

This does not take you by surprise.  After all, the manager they hired to replace you changed all of the systems, rules, and processes. 

Your say, "Yes, I have heard that the systems all changed.  We had it running pretty well before I left, didn't we."

But your friend says, "It's not about systems and processes.  The new ones work as well as the old.  It's about how we work together, how we communicate, and how we feel about the organization.  It's about what is valued, and our pride in our work."

And, this is when you learn about your legacy.

All of this time you were thinking that the things you built, the words you wrote, the rules or laws you helped create, the way you made things run, was your legacy - what you were passing on to the next generation.

But, in reality, your legacy was found in the minds you touched, the values you instilled, the environment you created, and in your authenticity, your ethics, your vision, and your courage.

Systems and rules can be changed.  Structures can be torn down or sold.  Political tides can (and will) ebb and flow.  Corporate climate can change.  None of these contain your legacy.

The only thing you leave behind with any certainty is what is carried in the hearts and minds of those you have touched.

Use your time wisely, for whether it is short or long, it is not unlimited.  Give those who will carry on when you step out of the organization the gift of a legacy that will serve them well when they stand in your shoes.

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Keat's Epitaph
Here lies one whose name was writ in water.

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For another look at the concept of legacy, you might enjoy this blog entry found on the Fast Company web site - What Is Your Leadership Legacy by Craig Chappelow

Self As Instrument

No matter where you go, there you are. 
(Source: possibly Confucius, biblical, or Star Trek)
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Many people go through life taking the events of each day as they happen, happily addressing each challenge, and then heading home with the sense that they did the best that they could, given the circumstances.  Tomorrow is another day, not to be worried about until the morning comes.

But for those who find themselves in situations that require change, where their vision of the future is different from the realities of today, and where they have made the choice to play an active part in achieving that vision, such a laissez-faire approach does not work.  If change is to occur, some sort of intervention is required.  And the only tool that any individual has to bring about change is themselves - their actions, behaviors, dialog, questions, and choices.  They must choose to use their skills and abilities in deliberate and thoughtful ways to influence others.  In short, they must use themselves as the instrument of change, a concept often referred to as self as instrument.

As with any instrument, before one becomes a virtuoso there is learning, practice, and performance.  A musician does not decide to become a pianist and immediately leap onto the stage at Carnegie Hall.  Practice and preparation is necessary before the performance.  Nor does a leader decide to become an instrument of change and immediately charge forward to success without introspection and learning.

Katherine Curran, Charles Seashore, and Michael Welp summarized the concept of self as instrument best in their November 1995 presentation to the ODN National Conference:

Perhaps the most powerful instrument we have in helping our clients navigate change is ourselves. Our ability to use ourselves potently relies in large part on the level of awareness we have about the impact we make, and our ability to make choices to direct and modify that impact.

Awareness is the key.  Developing the mind so it is aware of self, others, situations, and patterns is the beginning of being able to use yourself as an instrument of change.  Self-awareness and self-management become the first requirements.

In Primal Leadership, Daniel Goleman lists these as the first two dimensions of what he has termed emotional intelligence.  True self-awareness requires reflective self-examination, feedback from others, and knowledge of who you are, where you are going, and why you are going there.  Self-awareness is not something that is intrinsic, it is developed over time, often with the help of others guiding the self-discovery process.

In his book Leadership From The Inside Out, Kevin Cashman suggests:

Leadership is not simply something we do.  It comes from somewhere inside us.  Leadership is a process, an intimate expression of who we are.  It is our being in action.  Our being, our personhood, says as much about us as a leader as the act of leading itself.

Cashman's statement about leadership is also applicable when we are becoming an agent of change; it is not simply something we do.  It is a process, an intimate expression of who we are.  It is moving from passive observer to active participant.

But, why all this talk of self when what we want is to influence others to join us in the pursuit of our vision?  The answer is: through the understanding of yourself, you become a more authentic leader, one who "aligns both actions and behaviors with [your] core values and beliefs". (An Overview of Self as Instrument Using a Leadership lens and a Coaching Application, Debbie Kennedy, December 29, 2006)  This authenticity is visible to those who would be followers and companions on the journey to the desired future, and encourages the development of trust between the leader and the followers.  Also, "Followers learn by observing the positive values, psychological states, behaviors and self-development being modeled by the authentic leader..." encouraging the same behavior in the followers. (Kennedy)

You have the ability to become a leader who makes a huge difference in your organization if you are willing to devote the time to develop the tools you need to be an effective instrument of change - to develop your "self as instrument".  The journey to virtuosity begins inside by learning about who you are, developing self-awareness and self-management (and as Goleman would suggest, in the development of social-awareness and relationship management).  It continues by becoming clear on what you want to accomplish as a result of your effort, and why it is important to create a particular vision of the future.

Once you have developed the ultimate instrument (yourself), no matter where you are, you will have with you everything you need to be an authentic leader who can make a difference.